Tajikistan Economy - 2022

GEOGRAPHICAL NAMES 

Economic overview

Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, tungsten, and coal. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant - currently operating well below its capacity. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Today, Tajikistan is the poorest among the former Soviet republics. Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.

 

Since the end of the civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations in the economic sphere, but its poor business climate remains a hindrance to attracting foreign investment. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30%-50% of GDP.

 

Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad - roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through remittances that in 2017 were equivalent to nearly 35% of GDP. Tajikistan’s large remittances from migrant workers in Russia exposes it to monetary shocks. Tajikistan often delays devaluation of its currency for fear of inflationary pressures on food and other consumables. Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations have hampered economic growth. The dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by almost 65% in 2015, and the government spent almost $500 million in 2016 to bail out the country’s still troubled banking sector.

 

Tajikistan’s growing public debt – currently about 50% of GDP – could result in financial difficulties. Remittances from Russia increased in 2017, however, bolstering the economy somewhat. China owns about 50% of Tajikistan’s outstanding debt. Tajikistan has borrowed heavily to finance investment in the country’s vast hydropower potential. In 2016, Tajikistan contracted with the Italian firm Salini Impregilo to build the Roghun dam over a 13-year period for $3.9 billion. A 2017 Eurobond has largely funded Roghun’s first phase, after which sales from Roghun’s output are expected to fund the rest of its construction. The government has not ruled out issuing another Eurobond to generate auxiliary funding for its second phase.

Real GDP (purchasing power parity)

$34.88 billion (2020 est.)

$33.38 billion (2019 est.)

$31.08 billion (2018 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars

Real GDP growth rate

7.1% (2017 est.)

6.9% (2016 est.)

6% (2015 est.)

Real GDP per capita

$3,700 (2020 est.)

$3,600 (2019 est.)

$3,400 (2018 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars

GDP (official exchange rate)

$2.522 billion (2019 est.)

Inflation rate (consumer prices)

7.7% (2019 est.)

3.9% (2018 est.)

7.3% (2017 est.)

Credit ratings

Moody's rating: B3 (2017)

Standard & Poors rating: B- (2017)

note: The year refers to the year in which the current credit rating was first obtained.

GDP - composition, by sector of origin

agriculture: 28.6% (2017 est.)

industry: 25.5% (2017 est.)

services: 45.9% (2017 est.)

GDP - composition, by end use

household consumption: 98.4% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 13.3% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 11.7% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 2.5% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 10.7% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -36.6% (2017 est.)

Agricultural products

milk, potatoes, wheat, watermelons, onions, tomatoes, vegetables, cotton, carrots/turnips, beef

Industries

aluminum, cement, coal, gold, silver, antimony, textile, vegetable oil

Industrial production growth rate

1% (2017 est.)

Labor force

2.295 million (2016 est.)

Labor force - by occupation

agriculture: 43%

industry: 10.6%

services: 46.4% (2016 est.)

Unemployment rate

2.4% (2016 est.)

2.5% (2015 est.)

note: official rate; actual unemployment is much higher

Population below poverty line

26.3% (2019 est.)

Gini Index coefficient - distribution of family income

34 (2015 est.)

34.7 (1998)

Household income or consumption by percentage share

lowest 10%: (2009 est.) NA

highest 10%: (2009 est.) NA

Budget

revenues: 2.269 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 2.374 billion (2017 est.)

Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)

-1.5% (of GDP) (2017 est.)

Public debt

50.4% of GDP (2017 est.)

42% of GDP (2016 est.)

Taxes and other revenues

31.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)

Fiscal year

calendar year

Current account balance

-$35 million (2017 est.)

-$362 million (2016 est.)

Exports

$1.41 billion (2020 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

$1.24 billion (2019 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

$1.12 billion (2018 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Exports - partners

Turkey 24%, Switzerland 22%, Uzbekistan 16%, Kazakhstan 12%, China 10% (2019)

Exports - commodities

gold, aluminum, cotton, zinc, antimony, lead (2019)

Imports

$3.13 billion (2020 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

$3.41 billion (2019 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

$3.22 billion (2018 est.) note: data are in current year dollars

Imports - partners

China 40%, Russia 38%, Kazakhstan 19%, Uzbekistan 5% (2019)

Imports - commodities

refined petroleum, wheat, natural gas, bauxite, aircraft (2019)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold

$1.292 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$652.8 million (31 December 2016 est.)

Debt - external

$6.47 billion (2019 est.)

$5.849 billion (2018 est.)

Exchange rates

Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar -

8.764 (2017 est.)

7.8358 (2016 est.)

7.8358 (2015 est.)

6.1631 (2014 est.)

4.9348 (2013 est.)

NOTE: The information regarding Tajikistan on this page is re-published from the 2022 World Fact Book of the United States Central Intelligence Agency and other sources. No claims are made regarding the accuracy of Tajikistan 2022 information contained here. All suggestions for corrections of any errors about Tajikistan 2022 should be addressed to the CIA or the source cited on each page.